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三菱日联:日本央行近期内难再压低日元

2019-06-19 23:15 日本央行

三菱日联研究部周三(6月19日)讨论了本周日本央行会议即将进行之际日元的前景。
主要观点
市场参与者看来比较少担心日本央行货币会议会出现鸽派意外的风险。目前的经济环境还不足够令日本央行做出什么重大的调整。日本央行被认为更可能采取4月份所宣称的“持续性放宽政策”。前瞻利率指引的近一步延长也是有可能的。
日本央行目前显示将计划让利率保持不变,至少在2020年春季前是这样。然而日本央行行长黑田东彦已经表明“有很大的可能现在的低利率将在这一时期以后保持,具体情况将依赖于未来的进展”。与其他的市场参与者类似,我们继续怀疑日本央行能否在近期内削弱日元。目前日本央行要再度通过额外的放宽政策压低日元具有较高的门槛。
校对:十门

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