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三菱日联:欧洲央行鸽派转折下欧元/美元下行风险提升

2019-06-19 23:35 欧元

三菱日联周三(6月19日)讨论了昨日欧洲央行鸽派转折后欧元的前景。
主要观点
我们已经预期欧元/美元将在欧洲央行鸽派政策更新下下跌超过0.4%。欧元的缺乏反应可能是因为今日的美联储会议。市场预期美联储将暗示降息会很快来临。另外,欧元温和的趋弱可能反映了欧元兑美元已经非常疲弱,欧洲央行放宽政策言论的影响由此被削弱。市场参与者已经广泛预期欧洲央行会采取负利率和量化宽松政策(QE),因此欧洲央行要再制造鸽派意外门槛较高。尽管如此,我们仍然判断最新进展提高了欧元的下行风险。
另外,欧元的期权资金流已经转向看跌,指数平滑异同移动平均线(MACD divergence)也显示欧元/美元将走低。

This article is published only for general use basic informatory purposes and should not be considered or depended on as a financial or investment advice. Investors should make sure that they understand the risks and seek independent financial advice at all times. CFDS ARE COMPLEX INSTRUMENTS AND COME WITH A HIGH RISK OF LOSING MONEY RAPIDLY DUE TO LEVERAGE.

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