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美元又出现了新的卖盘 继续做多欧元/美元的理由很充分!?

2019-06-20 16:30 欧元

周四(6月20日)欧市早盘,欧元/美元一度升破1.13关口,最高来到1.1301,缘于美元承压下挫,连续三天下跌,累计跌幅达到1%,为逾五个月以来最大三天跌幅。
消息面来看,在隔夜的美联储利率决议上,美联储的措辞已转向更为宽松的立场,并为近期降息打开了大门。
外媒援引交易员称,今天伦敦市场开盘之后,实仓涌现出杠杆基金和长线账户新的美元卖盘,另外还有少量欧元和英镑空头的获利了结盘。
不过,有份认为欧元/美元继续走高预计将是短暂的,因为欧洲央行目前也在考虑,如果欧元区前景恶化,通胀未能接近央行的目标,欧洲央行也有可能下调利率或者重启量化宽松计划。
针对欧元的后市前景,丹斯克银行高级分析师Piet P. H. Christiansen指出,欧元兑美元汇率受鸽派美联储影响测试了1.1250水平,这证明了在会议开始前的鸽派定价是合理的。
美联储主席鲍威尔强调,美联储正在密切关注贸易谈判,需要看到更多疲弱的数据才能触发行动。这意味着即将召开的G20会议,以及即将发布的关键数据将对美元走势产生重要影响。
没有看到数据好转,也没有看到美联储下次会议前贸易谈判有突破的风险,这意味着欧元/美元仍有上涨的潜力。
该行称,经过两天鸽派的央行们表态,仍然认为欧元/美元走高的理由很充分,因为美联储准备比欧洲央行放松更多的货币政策,仍预计欧元兑美元3个月内将升至1.15。

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