US: Leading indicators continue to suggest growth will continue but moderate - Wells Fargo
The Leading Economic Index came in flat in May, after rising during the previous two months. As the expansion is nearing the longest in the post-WW II era, leading indicators continue to suggest growth will continue but moderate, explained analysts at Wells Fargo.
“The Leading Index has been more or less flat since September, and only five of the ten components made positive contributions to the index in May. Consumer expectations were a bright spot in this report, which contributed the most to the headline and saw its largest contribution since October. This is a notable signal of the strength of the consumer, despite the moderation in May employment and decline in the stock market.”
“Stock prices subtracted the most, shaving 0.07 percentage points from the headline as markets struggled through May. The stock rebound to date in June suggests this component should rebound next month.”
“Trade likely remains the largest risk to this lengthy expansion.”
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